Wednesday, August 7, 2013

UNH Poll: Rubio's and Christie's Favorability Have Both Taken Big Hits since February While Rand Paul Has Soared

The University of New Hampshire just came out with a pretty interesting poll of the voters in that state which show that the favorability ratings among Republicans for Marco Rubio and Chris Christie have both taken a tumble this year.  Here is a key graph and some commentary from the pollster:

“Rubio and Christie have seen their net favorability ratings drop significantly – Rubio’s has dropped 18 percentage points since April and Christie’s has dropped 14 percentage points since February,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. “These drops are indications that Rubio and Christie have alienated significant segments of the Republican base.” Paul and Jindal have seen the greatest increases in net favorability.
In terms of voter preference however, Christie does currently lead 21% to 16% for Rand Paul but if you take into account those who say "I definitely won't vote for this guy", Rand Paul actually leads.  11% of people definitely won't vote for Chris Christie while only 3% won't vote for Rand Paul.  This hatred of Chris Christie is also consistent with what we saw in a recent Rasmussen poll, where he leads in both votes and hatred.  Here is the key chart of "net electability" which subtracts out those who will definitely not vote for a candidate from their vote totals:

So while Chris Christie does look like the person to beat, his recent actions don't seem to have helped his case much and have created a ceiling for his support.  And it looks like Santorum should just not even bother.  I guess the anti-libertarian needs a different schtick. 

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