The polls of the 2016 GOP nomination race so far make Rand Paul a frontrunner in all of them I've seen but, as I've said before, he has some major weaknesses among women and the elderly.
In the latest PPP poll, Rand Paul is in first with 18%, Chris Christie is second with 16%, Paul Ryan is third with 15% and Jeb Bush at 14%. As you can see, his lead is razor thin and possible wouldn't be a lead at all if Jeb Bush decides not to run and endorses Chris Christie instead. Every time we have a race of 1 moderate vs. a bunch of conservatives of various stripes, the moderate wins. Also, with a poll this tight, the race becomes a turnout game. And who usually turns out for primaries and caucuses? The elderly. Which is a group that Rand Paul is consistently weak with. In this poll, he only gets 11% of the vote from the >65 crew, which puts him in 6th place, just after "Someone Else/Not Sure". That is not a recipe for success. Heck, he doesn't do much better among the 46-65 group either. He is in 4th place with 12% of the vote with them. He also polls in 4th place with 14% of the female vote, behind Paul Ryan, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.
While I would like to believe that Rand Paul can go all the way on the backs of the young, males and very conservative people, I doubt it. He needs to do some outreach and fast or else we will be stuck with either another Bush or Chris Christie as the nominee and I might not be able to take that.